Dubai: Indians in the United Arab Emirates who are considering sending money home can expect the exchange rates of the UAE dirham to the rupee to turn in their favor next week, as the currency India is expected to weaken further over the coming week, experts say.
Any weakness of the rupee against the dollar will impact the exchange rate of the rupee against the dirham due to the pegging of the UAE currency to the dollar.
The rupee closed at Rs 74.5650 to the dollar (around 20.32 dirham on Friday).
High prices of imported raw materials are expected to weaken the Indian rupee against the US dollar over the coming week, experts say.
The possibility of an outflow of money from the IPO (initial public offering) to foreign venture capitalists will also impact the position of the rupee against the USD.
Last week, the rupee consolidated in a narrow range and had a moderate reaction despite various data releases.
“The Indian rupee is expected to weaken against the US dollar over the coming week due to higher crude prices and a possible outflow of IPO money going to equity investors- foreign risk, “said Sajal Gupta, Head of Forex and Rates at Edelweiss Securities.
“The dollar havens are still intact and after Powell’s testimony, FX traders are not convinced of the insistence of the accommodative outlook,” Rahul Gupta, head of currency research, Emkay Global Financial Services.
“Better than expected US retail sales data will appreciate the USDINR spot, raising bets for an earlier than expected Fed rate hike or decrease. “
Experts predict that a dollar / rupee (Spot) range should trade with a positive bias and a quote between 74.20 and 75.20.
“Next week, in the first half of the week, we expect momentum to remain relatively weak as market participants remain cautious ahead of the ECB’s policy statement,” said Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
“The central bank is expected to continue to remain accommodative, thereby maintaining the capped gains for EURUSD.”
However, Devarsh Vakil, deputy director of retail research at HDFC Securities, said: “The short-term outlook for the rupee remains bullish, but the central bank is likely to absorb inflows and this would limit the short-term increase. “
“We expect the rupee to trade in a range of 74.30 to 74.80 in the near term.”