Vietnam’s leader is back in power, armed with bold promises. But can he truly deliver? The stakes are higher than ever, as Communist Party General Secretary To Lam vows to propel the nation into a new era of 'national rise.' With nearly 1,600 delegates gathered at the party congress this week, the stage is set for Vietnam’s future—but here’s where it gets controversial: To Lam’s re-election as party chief for another five years has sparked debates about the concentration of power. Is this a sign of strong consensus, or a silencing of opposition?
To Lam’s vision is nothing short of ambitious. Eighteen months after succeeding his predecessor, Nguyen Phu Trong, he’s shifted focus from anti-corruption crackdowns to sweeping reforms aimed at economic growth. His plans? A complete overhaul of Vietnam’s administration, slashing bureaucracy, cutting provinces from 63 to 34, and laying off 100,000 government employees. But here’s the part most people miss: Resolution 68, passed last May, declared the private sector as the 'most important driving force' of the economy—a seismic shift for a nominally socialist nation. Yet, Resolution 79, passed this month, seems to backtrack, reaffirming state-owned enterprises as 'leading cranes.' Is Vietnam truly embracing private enterprise, or is it clinging to old ideologies?
To Lam’s targets are breathtaking: double-digit annual growth, doubling private businesses by 2030, and transforming Vietnam into an upper-income, tech-driven economy by 2045. But achieving this means breaking free from the 'middle-income trap'—a feat no large Southeast Asian country has accomplished. Can Vietnam be the exception?
A key part of To Lam’s strategy is nurturing 'leading cranes'—private sector giants capable of competing globally. Yet, Vietnam’s private companies are mostly small, with only 2% employing over 200 people. To Lam aims to create 20 global competitors by 2030, echoing South Korea’s chaebol model. But here’s the catch: state-owned enterprises still dominate, accounting for 29% of GDP in 2024. Their preferential access to resources makes it tough for private firms to thrive. Is To Lam’s approach leveling the playing field, or simply replacing one form of inequality with another?
Vietnam’s economic success over the past 30 years is undeniable, lifting millions out of poverty and becoming a manufacturing powerhouse. Yet, its reliance on foreign investment, technology, and markets raises questions. As To Lam himself noted, Vietnam often sits at the bottom of the value chain, providing cheap labor rather than innovation. Can Vietnam climb higher, or will it remain an assembly hub for foreign giants like Samsung?
Companies like FPT, a tech firm winning global contracts, offer hope. But even FPT pales in comparison to Vingroup, Vietnam’s largest private conglomerate, which dominates everything from real estate to electric vehicles. Vingroup’s Vinfast, despite losing billions, enjoys political backing at home. Is this a recipe for global success, or a risky bet on politically connected firms?
Nguyen Khac Giang of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute warns that To Lam’s approach could replace state monopolies with private rent-seekers, crowding out small and medium enterprises—the backbone of innovation and employment. Is Vietnam’s future in the hands of a few powerful players, or can it foster a truly competitive economy?
As To Lam navigates these challenges, external pressures loom. Vietnam’s reliance on the U.S. market is threatened by tariffs, and its 'bamboo diplomacy' will be tested in an era of global tensions. Can Vietnam chart its own course, or will it be caught in the crossfire of great power rivalries?
The world is watching. To Lam’s promises are bold, but the path ahead is fraught with uncertainty. Will Vietnam rise to become a global economic powerhouse, or will it stumble under the weight of its ambitions? What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s spark a debate!
