Here’s a shocking revelation that’s bound to shake up the luxury watch industry: Rolex, the undisputed king of Swiss watch sales, has slashed its production for the second consecutive year in 2025. But here’s where it gets even more intriguing—despite this reduction, the brand has not only maintained but expanded its dominance in the market. How is this possible? Let’s dive into the details.
According to Swiss bank Vontobel’s highly anticipated annual report, Rolex’s market share by value for watches priced above CHF 3,000 has surged to a staggering 61%, up from 57% in 2023. This isn’t just a minor adjustment—it’s a testament to the brand’s strategic focus on exclusivity and pricing power over sheer volume. And this is the part most people miss: Rolex’s decision to cut production is likely a deliberate move to cultivate scarcity, ensuring its watches remain highly coveted and premium-priced.
Vontobel’s report, a cornerstone for industry executives and investors, paints a picture of a Swiss watch market under intense pressure. Rising gold prices and a strong Swiss franc are squeezing the industry, yet a select few brands—Rolex chief among them—are thriving while others struggle. For instance, the industry exported 220,000 fewer high-end watches (priced above CHF 3,000) over the past two years, a 10% decline. However, brands like Cartier, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, and Richard Mille have managed to grow or hold their ground, while others, such as Richemont’s IWC, Jaeger-LeCoultre, and Swatch Group’s Omega, face significant challenges.
Here’s a bold statement: Rolex’s sales dominance is so profound that it now generates nearly CHF 10.5 billion in revenue—more than the next five competitors combined. Cartier follows in second place with CHF 3.4 billion, while Audemars Piguet’s vertically integrated retail model has propelled it to third place with CHF 2.4 billion in sales. But what’s truly groundbreaking is Rolex’s Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) program, which has skyrocketed to nearly CHF 500 million in sales since its launch in late 2022. If the CPO program were a standalone brand, it would rank close to the top 10 in the Swiss watch industry—a remarkable feat.
However, not everything is rosy in the luxury watch world. Here’s a controversial point to ponder: While watch prices have risen, they’ve failed to keep pace with the explosive 67% surge in gold prices over the past year. The average price of precious-metal watches increased by just 9% in 2025 and 8% the year before. Does this mean consumers are paying a premium for watches that aren’t fully reflecting the cost of materials? Or is this a strategic move by brands to maintain accessibility in a volatile market? We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.
As we await Morgan Stanley’s upcoming report, one thing is clear: the Swiss watch industry is at a crossroads. Rolex’s strategic production cuts and focus on exclusivity have solidified its position, but the broader market faces challenges that demand innovation and adaptability. What do you think? Is Rolex’s approach sustainable, or is the industry due for a seismic shift? Let us know below!
